Archive - Dwarkesh Podcast

Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

Continual learning is a huge bottleneck

Jun 2 •

Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away

"The problems are tractable, but they're still difficult”

Oct 17 •

2:25:19

Dec 27, 2024 •

What fully automated firms will look like

Everyone is sleeping on the *collective* advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ - they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled…

Jan 31 •

Will scaling work?

Data bottlenecks, generalization benchmarks, primate evolution, intelligence as compression, world modelers, and other considerations

Dec 26, 2023 •

Questions about the Future of AI

Considerations about economics, history, training, deployment, investment, and more

Apr 21 •

Thoughts on the AI buildout

Fab CapEx overhang, 1 GW a week, China privileged in long timelines, and much else

Oct 22 •

and

Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history

The trillion dollar cluster...

Jun 4, 2024 •

4:31:17

Gwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary

Legacy & Anonymity in the Age of AGI

Nov 13, 2024 •

1:36:43

Satya Nadella — Microsoft’s AGI plan & quantum breakthrough

AGI is not the real benchmark: 10% economic growth is

Feb 19 •

1:16:09

Richard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead end

Watch now (66 mins) | LLMs aren’t Bitter-Lesson-pilled

Sep 26 •

1:06:21

Contra Marc Andreessen on AI

"The claim that you will completely control any system you build is obviously false, and a hacker like Marc should know that"

Jun 13, 2023 •

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