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The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations
The whole OpenAI/Hugging Face story in plain English
Aug 29
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Dwarkesh Patel
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Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner
Continual learning is a huge bottleneck
Jun 2, 2025
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Dwarkesh Patel
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Dario Amodei — "We are near the end of the exponential"
"That's why I'm sending this message of urgency"
Feb 13
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2:22:19
Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
"The problems are tractable, but they're still difficult”
Oct 17, 2025
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Dwarkesh Patel
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2:25:19
Jensen Huang – TPU competition, why we should sell chips to China, & Nvidia’s supply chain moat
“If our next several years are a trillion dollars in scale, we have the supply chain to do it"
Apr 15
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Dwarkesh Patel
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1:43:12
Elon Musk — "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
“Those who live in software land are about to have a hard lesson in hardware.”
Feb 5
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2:49:45
Ilya Sutskever — We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research
“These models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people. It's a very fundamental thing.”
Nov 25, 2025
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Dwarkesh Patel
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1:36:03
Notes on China
Dec 27, 2024
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Dwarkesh Patel
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What fully automated firms will look like
Everyone is sleeping on the *collective* advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ: they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled…
Jan 31, 2025
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Why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years
If a human-level software engineer that could run on an H100 equivalent, at current market rates for software engineers, that H100 should rent for over…
Jul 29
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Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history
The trillion dollar cluster...
Jun 4, 2024
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Dwarkesh Patel
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4:31:17
Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
Plus a tour of Fairwater 2, the most powerful AI datacenter in the world
Nov 12, 2025
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Dwarkesh Patel
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1:27:47
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