This is a narration of my blog post, Will scaling work?.
You read the full post here: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/will-scaling-work
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Will scaling work?
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When should we expect AGI? If we can keep scaling LLMs++ (and get better and more general performance as a result), then there’s reason to expect powerful AIs by 2040 (or much sooner) which can automate most cognitive labor and speed up further AI progress. However, if scaling doesn’t work, then the path to AGI seems much longer and more intractable, fo…
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