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Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)
Dec 23, 2025
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Dwarkesh Patel
33
5
12:27
Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner
An audio version of the original blog post
Jul 3, 2025
•
Dwarkesh Patel
25
4
3
14:00
Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner
Continual learning is a huge bottleneck
Jun 2, 2025
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Dwarkesh Patel
1,458
150
166
Give AIs a stake in the future
Part 1 of Classical Liberal AGI
May 30, 2025
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Dwarkesh Patel
82
14
14
Questions about the Future of AI
Considerations about economics, history, training, deployment, investment, and more
Apr 21, 2025
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Dwarkesh Patel
355
54
48
What fully automated firms will look like
Everyone is sleeping on the *collective* advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ - they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled…
Jan 31, 2025
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Dwarkesh Patel
529
77
85
Notes on China
Dec 27, 2024
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Dwarkesh Patel
924
106
96
Dwarkesh Podcast Progress Update
I was 2 months away from quitting the podcast for 2 years.
Aug 20, 2024
•
Dwarkesh Patel
263
29
31
Will scaling work?
Data bottlenecks, generalization benchmarks, primate evolution, intelligence as compression, world modelers, and other considerations
Dec 26, 2023
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Dwarkesh Patel
359
50
33
Contra Marc Andreessen on AI
"The claim that you will completely control any system you build is obviously false, and a hacker like Marc should know that"
Jun 13, 2023
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Dwarkesh Patel
334
80
29
Lessons from The Years of Lyndon Johnson by Robert Caro
"Explore a single individual deeply enough and truths about all individuals emerge." - Robert Caro
May 3, 2023
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Dwarkesh Patel
206
29
31
The mystery of the miracle year
An interesting pattern recurs across the career of great scientists: an annus mirabilis (miracle year) in which they make multiple, seemingly…
Apr 14, 2022
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Dwarkesh Patel
246
16
16
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