Essays

The benchmark where AIs have to lie to win

AIs are now good enough to run a conspiracy

Nov 5 • Dwarkesh Patel

8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning

Locking in AI safety regulation now is a mistake.

Aug 7 • Dwarkesh Patel

8:37

Why smarter AI models could drive up compute prices 10x

The end of cheap compute?

Aug 3 • Dwarkesh Patel

11:17

The next big breakthrough will be AIs learning on the job

Labs are throwing away the most valuable data.

Jun 26 • Dwarkesh Patel

19:52

The data black hole at the center of AI

"We see these AIs as a galaxy glittering with capabilities, but at their center, invisible to the naked eye, holding all the constellations together, is…

Jun 19 • Dwarkesh Patel

11:56

Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)

Dec 23, 2025 • Dwarkesh Patel

12:27

Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

An audio version of the original blog post

Jul 3, 2025 • Dwarkesh Patel

14:00

Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner

Continual learning is a huge bottleneck

Jun 2, 2025 • Dwarkesh Patel

Give AIs a stake in the future

Part 1 of Classical Liberal AGI

May 30, 2025 • Dwarkesh Patel

Questions about the Future of AI

Considerations about economics, history, training, deployment, investment, and more

Apr 21, 2025 • Dwarkesh Patel

What fully automated firms will look like

Everyone is sleeping on the *collective* advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ: they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled…

Jan 31, 2025 • Dwarkesh Patel

Dec 27, 2024 • Dwarkesh Patel

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