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Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)
Why I'm moderately bearish in the short term, and explosively bullish in the long term
Dec 2
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Dwarkesh Patel
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Podcast Strategy Doc (December 2025)
Back to The Lunar Society mission
Dec 1
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Dwarkesh Patel
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November 2025
Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research
“These models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people. It's a very fundamental thing.”
Nov 25
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Dwarkesh Patel
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1:36:03
RL is even more information inefficient than you thought
And implications for RLVR progress
Nov 17
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Dwarkesh Patel
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Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
Plus a tour of Fairwater 2, the most powerful AI datacenter in the world
Nov 12
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Dwarkesh Patel
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1:27:47
October 2025
Sarah Paine – How Russia sabotaged China's rise
Plus, where Russia and China go from here
Oct 31
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1:30:36
Thoughts on the AI buildout
Fab CapEx overhang, 1 GW a week, China privileged in long timelines, and much else
Oct 22
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Dwarkesh Patel
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Romeo Dean
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Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
"The problems are tractable, but they're still difficult”
Oct 17
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Dwarkesh Patel
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2:25:19
Nick Lane – Life as we know it is chemically inevitable
Life is continuous with Earth’s geochemistry
Oct 10
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Dwarkesh Patel
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1:20:08
Some thoughts on the Sutton interview
I have a much better understanding of Sutton’s vision now
Oct 4
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Dwarkesh Patel
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11:39
On The Vital Question by Nick Lane
Life is continuous with Earth's geochemistry??
Oct 1
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September 2025
Richard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead end
Watch now (66 mins) | LLMs aren’t Bitter-Lesson-pilled
Sep 26
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Dwarkesh Patel
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1:06:21
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